DAX showing uncertainty

I have not posted much this week. I am watching events very closely in the middle east. There have been a number of significant developments in geo-politics. The tension between Russia and Turkey could easily blow up into a major conflict. Russia is considering what action they will take in response to the fighter jet being shot down. A breakdown between Turkey and Russia is one of the three scenarios that I have been looking for. Another is for the Saudi's to un-peg from the $USD which also seems very likely if the Fed were to raise the rate in December. The Saudis could possibly cut back on oil production in the short term to lift the oil price but markets are starting to price in the worst outcome. The third scenario involves Israel but I cant see how this is going to come together yet. I will post more about this as I gather an understanding of how it could play out. 

I posted the DAX monthly, weekly and daily charts here to have a quick look at. I often like to look at the monthly chart but I have not really discussed it much here on my blog.

I always start with the weekly and daily chart but in this case the price is in the weekly kumo. If I look at the monthly chart here I can see that the MACD and stochastic are crossed down. That tells me that the long term bias is to the downside.
 

The weekly chart looks like it wants to break out but given the monthly chart I am not convinced that it will. The chikou is also below price so the outlook is neutral.

The daily chart is looking like it want to head back down to the kumo. Interesting to see what it does.