Gold has hit the flat kumo support on the daily chart but the MACD is crossed down so we could expect some downside. It really depends on interest rate expectations in the year ahead. At the moment the paper gold traders are fearing a rate rise in the U.S. I don't personally see this as even a remote possibility. The Fed will not raise rates if there is no inflation as they claim. If anything the global outlook is dis-inflationary. You just need to look at the M2 money velocity chart in decline that I showed a few posts back. I posted a great You Tube interview at the bottom of this blog with Dr. Paul Craig Roberts. It is worth having a listen to what he is saying.
The weekly gold spot chart here we can see that gold hit resistance at the flat kijun and has settled back in the week just gone. I believe in the new year when we see that the U.S. sales figures were not great for Christmas and the other economic indicators are flat to negative, we should see some transition from the sell side to the buy side in gold. We would need to see a break above $1240.00 and then a break above the weekly kumo. Below $1240.00 in gold would be neutral to bearish.
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