Second Down Leg

It looks like the second down leg of the ABC reversal is now commencing. It will be interesting to see if we get down to the monthly kijun sen this time. Need to see a lower weekly low first before we get too bearish.

NASDAQ Lower Weekly High?

NASDAQ daily and weekly. There seems to be a lower weekly high forming here. It will be interesting to see if there is a reversal to a lower weekly low. If so, then the monthly kijun sen target is in play which is 20% below current price. Lets see what happens.

Critical Point For U.S. Markets

The major U.S. indices are at a key point this week. A lot of traders are anticipating a reversal back down after this brief rally. It is too early to say yet. Have to see how it goes this week.

Vollatility Watch

Volatility is one of my favourite things to watch and trade. I really nailed this. It took a few goes at it but it paid off in the end.

UVXY intraday pulling back. Look for turn back up.

 

UVXY 2hr and 4hr.

 

UVXY  STT

 

SVXY 4hr and daily.

 

VXX daily. Once it broke above the daily kumo it really ripped as I expected.

SPX Holding Long Term Uptrend

SPX weekly on the kijun sen. Possible further downside. Have to see if kijun sen holds.

SPXA200R mth breadth is on the key level. Could be a couple of months before this turns bearish.

SPX mth still in strong uptrend. Bearish case is a test down to the mth kijun sen which is not out of the question. See how the mth candle ends.

Bitcoin Update

Bitcoin has found a short term support area. The long term momentum is still to the downside. Interesting how the 100 day MA and the weekly kijun sen are at the same level. Price is going to try to mean revert to the upside after over correcting. It is still a daily and weekly downtrend so there is no sign of a confirmed bottom yet.

Google trends 'how to buy bitcoin' search is showing a slight bottom. See if there is an increase in interest in this search over the next few weeks. This chart has been very accurate previously.

Bonds Rotation

One of the most interesting things to see this year will be if the bond market breaks down and we see rates shoot up faster than expected.

S&P 500 v Junk daily. While SPX rallied in 2017, junk bonds did not. Now it seems that stocks are re-connecting with junk bonds as the prospect of a potential four rate hikes in 2018 start to become a reality.

JNK weekly back below the kumo.

TLT weekly the long term trend line has broken.

 TNX mth the long term trend has broken.

Volatility Returns

Volatility has returned in a big way as was to be expected. SPX was more than 23% wide of the mth kijun sen so this is a mean reversion like we saw in 2016. Still could have at least another 15% to the downside.

 

VXX ripped higher. The long volatility trade was a no brainer. It took a few goes to get there but it was inevitable given the massive short volatility interest. 

Bitcoin daily and weekly

BTCUSD daily testing key support. Weekly still showing downside momentum.

Traders Secret Sauce

First post on my new blog. Traders Secret Sauce. I am going to be doing the occasional post for my own interest.

There goes the cross on JNK

We have the cross below the 15 day MA on JNK that I have been looking for. I didn't start getting short yet because as I said, you don't want to be entering when the market is in low volume ahead of a holiday. I was correct. The markets opened well down but the algos managed to bring it back to unchanged by close as I expected. We must wait for the confirmed entry, not start guessing. That has been my downfall in the past. I knew the analysis but I doubted myself and started to guess. You won't get the exact bottom or the exact top. We only want the bit in the middle. That is where the money is. We only want high probability setups.

You can see here how the markets regained the opening loss intraday by the close.

Commodity futures have been on a rip

Been some very big moves in futures. These are some of the major movers. Click on the chart to enlarge.

SPX weekly should confirm rejection

Just grabbed this small chart with about four and a half hours to go to U.S. open. It looks like there will be some settling up ahead of the long weekend. See how it looks by close. I don't like to be short in low liquidity. Anything can happen here. Best to wait for confirmation of entry no matter how tempting it looks. Oil back under 40 bucks. Its all about oil! Also VIX daily futures up off little double bottom.

Yes, this is still a long term top reversal. Make no mistake!

I have been getting questions from some traders about what I think of this recent rally. Make no mistake about it, this is still a long term reversal. There is nothing to indicate that the downside risk is over. Can the central bank come in and flood the market with buy orders? Yes absolutely. They have been doing it for at least two years that we know of. It does not seem to be working however.

DJIA - Dow Jones index mth key level is 16000. Still very much in top reversal despite recent rally. Not confirmed until key level breached at monthly close.

SPX - S&P 500 index mth 1900 key level still very much in top reversal. Not confirmed until key level breached at monthly close.

NDX - Nasdaq index mth key level 4150. Still very much in top reversal. Not confirmed until key level breached at monthly close.

NYA - NYSE index mth key level 9500. Lower high lower low with with resistance at flat kijun sen. Not confirmed until key level breached at monthly close.

RUT - Russell 2000 index mth key level 1050. Lower high and lower low. Found support at the kumo. Not confirmed until key level breached at monthly close.

IWM - Russell 2000 index daily key level 105. Turning off resistance. Not confirmed until key level breached.

 

China running out of momentum

Momentum seems to be stalling in China after what has been quite a strong rally. See how it goes next week.

Precious metals see some profit taking

Precious metals are coming under pressure.

Gold daily

HMY daily small double top resistance there. Might be it for the uptrend now.

Silver daily

ASX still flat

ASX weekly has found resistance at the kumo resistance. I expect this to turn lower next week.

Looks like next week will be key for markets

We don't look like getting the turn just yet. Should get some clarity next week. See how markets finish up by the weekend. Maybe we see some confirmation by weekend. See after Easter weekend.

Update 24 March: I was just watching an interesting video with Bo Polny. He said that March 23rd 2016 is actually Passover and there was a blood moon on that day. As it turns out now as I write this update on 24/3/16 it looks as though the 23rd was the top for this rally. I wrote quite a few articles related to the Jewish Shemitah last year. I stated that this was the Jubilee year as I discovered when reading the Harbinger by Johnathan Chan and this was far from over. I think the real action is just starting. Lets see what happens.

JNK daily not quite there yet.

SH weekly looks to be forming a double bottom

 UVXY daily is below support but seems to be putting in a swing low.

 

 Oil daily the all important chart is just testing that uptrend support. See how it ends the week

 OVX daily oil vix is below the uptrend. See what it does next week.

Market complacency is my best friend

The VIX weekly here is setting up for what I believe will be a rip higher. Just watching the indicators carefully to see the confirmation.

VIX daily looking for turn back up above 15.0

May we live in interesting times

Well things are at a very interesting junction right now. I am trying to show what I am looking at here on my blog so that others might get an idea of how I analyse the market movements. I am not saying the markets will go one way or the other. I am just simply trading the bias, hence the name of my blog. When I started trading there was no internet. There was nothing available but boring antiquated trading books. I used to get the stock quotes out of the news paper and plot them by hand on a graph paper chart. Things have changes a lot since then. Some things for the better, others not so much. One thing is for sure. We continue to advance into the night regardless. Thanks for the nice comment that I got about being a 'go to' from one of my blog readers. That is a big compliment. It can be a lonely life life when blogging about such dry topics as trading.

CCC triple hooks are still coming off since mid February. This is when we saw a dramatic return to risk assets after the extremely bearish start to the year.

SPX weekly is right on resistance. I am not expecting a higher weekly high here but if there was it would be a game changer. See what happens. Looking for the stochastic to turn over.

 

DJIA is still on the domed house resistance that I have been following.

TRAN Dow Transports weekly is testing the kumo again. See if this is a rejection. 

NYSE daily has found resistance at the 200 day MA. Watch is this breaks down.

NYMO daily is acting just like it did in October last year. It turned over in early Oct and the market didn't roll over until the first week of November. I expect the same again this time. Maybe see the turn first week of April.

Remember the old saying? "Sell in May and go away. Come back after St Ledgers day"